Marketing & Media Mix Modeling - Prediction Categories Explained (version 2022.4.1)

Upon running a prediction in your upgraded Plan Performance tab, you are prompted with a scatterplot that might look like the image below. Upon viewing this initially, the scatterplot could be underwhelming. However, once broken down, reading this scatterplot is quite straightforward and can help you make quick decisions! 

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First, let's look at the dotted red lines in the scatterplot. Where do they come from, and what do they mean?

These red lines are actually references to your target goal (Qualified Leads in this example) and your cost goal that is found in your Goal Pipeline. The Qualified Leads goal will be the horizontal line, and the cost goal the vertical. These lines serve as visual indicators for the data points in your scatterplot, we can quickly identify which prediction will cost more than my goal. Where your predictions fall in relation to both goal lines guides ChannelMix in categorizing your results. 

Great, that makes sense, but I see categories in multiple positions in relation to the goal lines. Why is that? How do I know which one to use?

While the goal lines do guide the categorizations, ChannelMix takes a few other things into consideration:

  • Top Prediction:
    • Top Predictions are generally reserved for predictions that are found in the upper left quadrant of your scatterplot (above the target goal line, and to the left of the cost goal line).
    • You should start here as these predictions are ideal as the recommendation can result in more of your target for less amount of money! 
    • However, you may find Top Predictions outside of that upper left quadrant. In the example above, the prediction in the bottom left corner is also considered a Top Prediction because it has the lowest Cost Per Qualified Lead of all the other predictions in the scatterplot. This is the most efficient recommendation! 
  • Great Prediction:
    • Great Predictions can usually be found in either the lower left quadrant or the upper right quadrant of your scatterplot. 
    • While these are not Top Predictions, these are still advisable predictions because they have a lower Cost Per Qualified Lead than your Goal Pipeline. In this example, this means our Great Predictions have a Cost Per Qualified Lead lower than $286.
    • Use these recommendations if you find yourself having a smaller budget or a larger budget! 
  • Maximize Target Prediction:
    • Maximize Target Predictions are reserved for predictions in the upper right quadrant that are not considered a Great Prediction. 
    • These recommendations provide the most amount of Qualified Leads but are less efficient than your historical performance. 
    • These predictions are only recommended if you do not have a budget constraint, or your ultimate goal is to generate the most Qualified Leads as possible. 
    • a larger value of your target than the baseline, but are less efficient than your baseline.
  • Not a Recommended Prediction:
    • The remaining predictions are Not a Recommended Prediction. Predictions found in the bottom right quadrant will automatically be categorized as a Not a Recommended Prediction. However, Not a Recommended Prediction can also be found in the bottom left quadrant as well as we see in the example above. 
    • These predictions are inferior as they not only achieve your goals but also are not efficient in generating Qualified Leads.

If you are in a channel-level dashboard and have selected Cost as your goal, you may have seen an additional prediction category:

  • Best Match:
    • This prediction returns the most amount of your target within a margin of the entered cost amount. This margin is indicated by the shaded grey area. 
      • By default, the margin is 10% of your cost. 
    • While there may be other predictions that are more efficient or return more of your target, the purpose of this categorization is to indicate which prediction is best considering the amount of budget you have available.  

With your business objective in mind, use the prediction categories to quickly plan your upcoming marketing strategy! Once you have settled on a prediction, click on it to reveal the recommended marketing and media mix! 

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